April 18 2020 UPDATE using 10% infection rate and 2% conservative death rate.
Something smells off……no I haven’t lost my sense of smell and positive for the virus ..not yet! China has four times the population than the United States and yet our deaths are NINE times theirs!
I’m not trying to be a fear monger, so people that tend to comment without giving critical direction on where my math is incorrect or why my estimates are not conservative.. go away… I’m just crunching some numbers here using a conservative infection rate and a conservative (known cases) death rate estimate. So here goes….12% of people tested globally for the Coronavirus so far have tested positive (2,178,149/18,161,936=12%). Say the infection rate is only 10% conservatively… with China having a 1.4 billion population, they would eventually have one hundred and forty million people there testing positive.
If the death rate for those positive were dying at say a *conservative 2% rate, that would be an eventual 2.8 million deaths there once the virus “Burns Through” its 10% infectious rate (140,000,000 x .02 =2,800,000) in China.
They recently increased their deaths by 1,300 (50%) for a total of 3,869 deaths.
https://www.google.com/…/china-wuhan-coronavirus…/index.html
*Per the above aformentioned article, China’s current cases are at 50,333 with 3,869 deaths which equates to a 7.7% death rate of “known” cases (3,869/50,333=.0768), which is why I call my 2% death rate OF KNOWN CASES conservative in addition to what John Hopkins says the U.S. has per capita…..
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/apr/18/trump-touts-us-wins-against-coronavirus-lower-capi/?utm_source=onesignal&utm_campaign=pushnotify&utm_medium=push
“Of the 10 countries with the most COVID-19 deaths, the U.S. has the second-lowest per capita mortality rate at 5.3% per 100,000 people, according to an analysis by Johns Hopkins University”.
Since China is three months ahead of the United States in this, I wanted to see how “finished” they are with this virus since they have seen a decline and have since relaxed and open up their businesses.
Dividing their current deaths by expected deaths, (3,869/2,800,000=.00138) they are ONLY .14% done with the virus. I then applied the same math to the United States’ population (329,410,596), infection rate (10%), and same death rate (2%) and I see that based on the current U.S. deaths of 34,522, that we are 5.2% done with this virus (u.s. population 329,410,596 x .10 infection rate=32,941,060 expected positive cases in the United States x .02 death rate = 658,821 expected U.S. “eventual” deaths).
Why is it that we are 37 fold ahead of China in being done with expected deaths? (.14 x 37=5.18) Something really smells. They either greatly understated their deaths, or we are greatly ineffective with our mitigation efforts thus far.
Since we have accumulated 34,522 deaths in 30 days roughly here in the U.S., to get us to a 5% “done-with-burn-through-eventual-death-rate”, applying that to the element of time would take us at LEAST a year and a half to get to 100% done. (1/.05=20 and 600days/30days=20 so that 600 days/365 days in a year=1.6 yrs to be done with eventual deaths).
Arlington TX analysis using 10% infection rate with 2% death rate of those eventually infected:
Arlington population rounded up 400,000 x .10= 40,000 projected infections
40,000 infected x .02 death rate= 800 projected eventual Arlington TX deaths
With three verified deaths in Arlington as of 4/17/20, we are .4% done with eventual projected deaths (3/800=.00375)
https://www.theshorthorn.com/coronavirus/covid–tracker-here-are-the-latest-updates/article_a18591e4-6edf-11ea-98b9-439f60589082.html?fbclid=IwAR3J332QiWp2TmRD4mReoThp54y5v3srP4mCI6kTj-2cR7xlDl7D-22g0ZY
If you recall the CDC recently revised down the number of expected U.S. deaths from the one to two hundreds of thousands “if we do everything perfectly” it was coined.
So even with my conservative/yet seemingly high numbers, could my 658,821 expected eventual U.S. deaths represent deaths we’d see without social distancing and PPE mitigation?
I’m trying to see the bigger picture in the long haul. If anything this analysis serves to make a case for all of us to comply with following social distancing for the next two years, wearing your masks, and hand washing.
If my conservative, yet higher than CDC eventual death numbers represent UNNECESSARY deaths without mitigation, then….. mass gatherings shouldn’t happen until just before Christmas of 2021. We can do this ya’ll!
——end update———
At the end of March in 2020, I based this post on a 25-50% (eventual) infection rate: with a headline “1,000-6,800 expected Arlington TX COVID deaths with at least 20,000 residents needing hospitalization”
Pandemic, Covid-19, deaths are estimated to represent .25% – 1.7% of the population of Arlington residents based on some key mathematical inputs; one of them being that Arlington is estimated to have 400,000 residents.
The 25%-50% infection rate, and the 1%-3.4% death rate as well as the hospitalization rate of 20% for those infected are from the March 29, 2020 article…….
https://www.nola.com/news/coronavirus/article_e33c0cf0-7090-11ea-b3da-53f5ab31dd4b.html?utm_medium=notification&utm_source=pushly&utm_campaign=desktop_push,
With the infection rate ranging from 25%-50%, that puts 100,000-200,000 Arlington citizens infected. This only represents those tested and “KNOWN” covid cases.
Of those infected, 20% will need hospitalization for an average of 11 days each. That means our hospitals that are not serving overflow from other cities, would need to prepare to……
admit TWENTY to FORTY THOUSAND Arlington residents.
T H I S I S W H Y W E S H O U L D W E A R S O M E T Y P E O F M A S K
T O P R O T E C T T H O S E I D E N T I F I E D A S T H E
V U N E R A B L E P O P U L A T I O N from the rest of us!
Those vulnerable besides the elderly are those with diabetes 41%, obesity 28%, heart/lung conditions, immuno-compromised and chronic kidney disease 31%, among others (of which 5% is those with no underlying health conditions). https://www.fox8live.com/2020/03/28/ldh-diabetes-leading-underlying-condition-covid-related-deaths/
THIS is why we are sheltering in place to “flatten the curve”. That way we don’t all come in at the same time needing IV fluids, or more critical services related to acute respiratory failure.
Of those going critical, the deaths can range from 1%-3.4% (however in my own tracking, with each passing day, the death rate goes higher. This could be already showing that the hospitals cannot keep up like in Italy. Italy’s death rate was 8.4% on 3/19/20 and as of 3/30 it is at 11.4%!!)
Apply your 1%-3.4% death rate to the infection rate of 100,000-200,00 citizens, and that is how I arrived at an estimated death toll ranging from 1,000-6,800 Arlington Citizens.
Each one of us preventing a person from being infected, helps to relieve the burden off of our hospital workers on the front lines risking it all…their own health….and their own families health!
Any questions?
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