Archive for March, 2020

(Covid)Mass Gatherings Should Not Happen Before Christmas 2021, Here’s the Math Why

March 30, 2020

covid john hopkins global april 18 2020

liveco april17 covid global by country topliveco april17 covid by us states top

April 18 2020 UPDATE using 10% infection rate and 2% conservative death rate.

Something smells off……no I haven’t lost my sense of smell and positive for the virus ..not yet! China has four times the population than the United States and yet our deaths are NINE times theirs!

I’m not trying to be a fear monger, so people that tend to comment without giving critical direction on where my math is incorrect or why my estimates are not conservative.. go away… I’m just crunching some numbers here using a conservative infection rate and a conservative (known cases) death rate estimate. So here goes….12% of people tested globally for the Coronavirus so far have tested positive (2,178,149/18,161,936=12%). Say the infection rate is only 10% conservatively… with China having a 1.4 billion population, they would eventually have one hundred and forty million people there testing positive.

If the death rate for those positive were dying at say a *conservative 2% rate, that would be an eventual 2.8 million deaths there once the virus “Burns Through” its 10% infectious rate (140,000,000 x .02 =2,800,000) in China.

They recently increased their deaths by 1,300 (50%) for a total of 3,869 deaths.
https://www.google.com/…/china-wuhan-coronavirus…/index.html

*Per the above aformentioned article, China’s current cases are at 50,333 with 3,869 deaths which equates to a 7.7% death rate of “known” cases (3,869/50,333=.0768), which is why I call my 2% death rate OF KNOWN CASES conservative in addition to what John Hopkins says the U.S. has per capita…..

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/apr/18/trump-touts-us-wins-against-coronavirus-lower-capi/?utm_source=onesignal&utm_campaign=pushnotify&utm_medium=push

“Of the 10 countries with the most COVID-19 deaths, the U.S. has the second-lowest per capita mortality rate at 5.3% per 100,000 people, according to an analysis by Johns Hopkins University”.

Since China is three months ahead of the United States in this, I wanted to see how “finished” they are with this virus since they have seen a decline and have since relaxed and open up their businesses.
Dividing their current deaths by expected deaths, (3,869/2,800,000=.00138) they are ONLY .14% done with the virus. I then applied the same math to the United States’ population (329,410,596), infection rate (10%), and same death rate (2%) and I see that based on the current U.S. deaths of 34,522, that we are 5.2% done with this virus (u.s. population 329,410,596 x .10 infection rate=32,941,060 expected positive cases in the United States x .02 death rate = 658,821 expected U.S. “eventual” deaths).

Why is it that we are 37 fold ahead of China in being done with expected deaths? (.14 x 37=5.18) Something really smells. They either greatly understated their deaths, or we are greatly ineffective with our mitigation efforts thus far.

Since we have accumulated 34,522 deaths in 30 days roughly here in the U.S., to get us to a 5% “done-with-burn-through-eventual-death-rate”, applying that to the element of time would take us at LEAST a year and a half to get to 100% done. (1/.05=20 and 600days/30days=20 so that 600 days/365 days in a year=1.6 yrs to be done with eventual deaths).

Arlington TX analysis using 10% infection rate with 2%  death rate of those eventually infected:

Arlington population rounded up 400,000 x .10= 40,000 projected infections

40,000 infected x .02 death rate= 800 projected eventual Arlington TX deaths

With three verified deaths in Arlington as of 4/17/20, we are .4% done with eventual projected deaths (3/800=.00375)

https://www.theshorthorn.com/coronavirus/covid–tracker-here-are-the-latest-updates/article_a18591e4-6edf-11ea-98b9-439f60589082.html?fbclid=IwAR3J332QiWp2TmRD4mReoThp54y5v3srP4mCI6kTj-2cR7xlDl7D-22g0ZY

If you recall the CDC recently revised down the number of expected U.S. deaths from the one to two hundreds of thousands “if we do everything perfectly” it was coined.

So even with my conservative/yet seemingly high numbers, could my 658,821 expected eventual U.S. deaths represent deaths we’d see without social distancing and PPE mitigation?

I’m trying to see the bigger picture in the long haul. If anything this analysis serves to make a case for all of us to comply with following social distancing for the next two years, wearing your masks, and hand washing.

If my conservative, yet higher than CDC eventual death numbers represent UNNECESSARY deaths without mitigation, then….. mass gatherings shouldn’t happen until just before Christmas of 2021. We can do this ya’ll!

 

——end update———

At the end of March in 2020, I based this post on a 25-50% (eventual)  infection rate: with a headline “1,000-6,800 expected Arlington TX COVID deaths with at least 20,000 residents needing hospitalization”

Pandemic, Covid-19, deaths are estimated to represent .25% – 1.7% of the population of Arlington residents based on some key mathematical inputs; one of them being that Arlington is estimated to have 400,000 residents.

The 25%-50% infection rate, and the 1%-3.4% death rate as well as the hospitalization rate of 20% for those infected are from the March 29, 2020 article…….

fluvrscovidfinal

https://www.nola.com/news/coronavirus/article_e33c0cf0-7090-11ea-b3da-53f5ab31dd4b.html?utm_medium=notification&utm_source=pushly&utm_campaign=desktop_push,

With the infection rate ranging from 25%-50%, that puts 100,000-200,000 Arlington citizens infected. This only represents those tested and “KNOWN” covid cases.

Of those infected, 20% will need hospitalization for an average of 11 days each. That means our hospitals that are not serving overflow from other cities, would need to prepare to……

admit TWENTY to FORTY THOUSAND Arlington residents.

T H I S   I S   W  H  Y   W E  S H O U L D  W E A R   S O M E   T Y P E  O F  M A S K 

T O   P R O T E C T   T H O S E   I D E N T I F I E D   A S  T H E 

V U N E R A B L E   P O P U L A T I O N  from the rest of us!

Those vulnerable besides the elderly are those with diabetes 41%, obesity 28%, heart/lung conditions, immuno-compromised and chronic kidney disease 31%, among others (of which 5% is those with no underlying health conditions). https://www.fox8live.com/2020/03/28/ldh-diabetes-leading-underlying-condition-covid-related-deaths/

THIS is why we are sheltering in place to “flatten the curve”. That way we don’t all come in at the same time needing IV fluids, or more critical services related to acute respiratory failure.

Of those going critical, the deaths can range from 1%-3.4% (however in my own tracking, with each passing day, the death rate goes higher. This could be already showing that the hospitals cannot keep up like in Italy. Italy’s death rate was 8.4% on 3/19/20 and as of 3/30 it is at 11.4%!!)

Apply your 1%-3.4% death rate to the infection rate of 100,000-200,00 citizens, and that is how I arrived at an estimated death toll ranging from 1,000-6,800 Arlington Citizens.

arlington death rate covid

Each one of us preventing a person from being infected, helps to relieve the burden off of our hospital workers on the front lines risking it all…their own health….and their own families health!

Any questions?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

COVID “Recovered” TESTING should be priority to protect ESSENTIAL WORKERS-Remove Vulnerable from front lines

March 25, 2020
FACE IT AMERICA, the window of opportunity to test for COVID-19 and pluck out those positive from circulation into quarantine works only BEFORE the virus has taken hold in communities. Once it is at the community spread level, you MUST GO TO PLAN B!!

We need to be all running on the premise that we have been infected already….and should only be going out for supplies or working essential jobs if we know for a fact we already had it.

We need the fast results, immunity titer test more than we need the COVID tests because people should already be self isolating and seek medical attention when symptoms become severe (high fever, worsening cough, shortness of breath).

The test to show if you have built up antibodies can show you’ve already had it, recovered, and can replace those that are vulnerable in these essential jobs… Whatever it takes to decrease the need for hospital beds and keep our hospital personnel from being overwhelmed!

BEHOLD…
More details here, https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/new-blood-tests-antibodies-could-show-true-scale-coronavirus-pandemic?fbclid=IwAR3D1QCqWw_qiS-A3g3CGPv8bgny6CmYC2wF0kzqcRC-FHoNEv_oa04_FVc
ATTN UTA affiliates help to make this a reality to use our labs more effectively to keep the economy and hospitals going.
There is no use testing people with symptoms as those asymotomatic are just as dangerous to the general public working essential jobs.
———————-
—– Forwarded Message —–
From: kim feil <kimfeil@sbcglobal.net>
To: Cynthia Simmons <cynthia.simmons@arlingtontx.gov>; sattler@uta.edu <sattler@uta.edu>; Kevin A. Schug <kschug@uta.edu>; Office of the President – UT Arlington <president@uta.edu>; Victoria Myers <victoria.farrar-myers@arlingtontx.gov>; Ranjana Bhandari <ranjanabhandari36@gmail.com>; Ignacio Nunez <ignacio.nunez@arlingtontx.gov>; Don Crowson <don.crowson@arlingtontx.gov>
Sent: Wednesday, March 25, 2020, 08:53:28 AM CDT
Subject: Fast track to swap our vulnerable essential workers for those with markers of immunity…story here! How can UTA help?

Mount Sinai researchers develop test for coronavirus antibodies

Kim Feil
UTA Alumni
—– Forwarded Message —–
From: kim feil <kimfeil@sbcglobal.net>
To: Victoria Myers <victoria.farrar-myers@arlingtontx.gov>; Ignacio Nunez <ignacio.nunez@arlingtontx.gov>; Cynthia Simmons <cynthia.simmons@arlingtontx.gov>
Sent: Tuesday, March 24, 2020, 11:58:13 AM CDT
Subject: Fw: Vulnerable working essential jobs contrary to curve flatteni

We need to have those that recovered from mild symptoms replace the vulnerable at essential jobs.

When they called for retired nurses and doctors to get back to work that is another way to tax the hospital system cuz this people they need to be cared for then!

Logic prevailing does not seem to be in play we are trying to save the vulnerable and the economy at the same time but we’re putting the vulnerable on the front lines.

 

—– Forwarded Message —–
From: “kim feil” <kimfeil@sbcglobal.net>
To: “Jeff Williams” <jeff.williams@arlingtontx.gov>, “Jeff Mosier” <jmosier@dallasnews.com>, “Sebastian Robertson” <srobertson@wfaa.com>, “Helen Moise” <helen.moise@arlingtontx.gov>, “Victoria Myers” <victoria.farrar-myers@arlingtontx.gov>, “Cynthia Simmons” <cynthia.simmons@arlingtontx.gov>, “Robert Shepard” <robert.shepard@arlingtontx.gov>, “Ignacio Nunez” <ignacio.nunez@arlingtontx.gov>, “barbara.odom-wesley@arlingtontx.gov” <barbara.odom-wesley@arlingtontx.gov>, “andrew.piel@arlingtontx.gov” <andrew.piel@arlingtontx.gov>, “Carol Cavazos” <carol2c2c@gmail.com>, “Marvin Sutton” <marvin.sutton@arlingtontx.gov>, “Downtown Arlington” <damc@downtownarlington.org>, “Chris Kite” <chris.kite@tceq.texas.gov>
Cc: “Don Crowson” <don.crowson@arlingtontx.gov>, “Gincy Thoppil” <gincy.thoppil@arlingtontx.gov>, “Zacariah Hildenbrand” <zac@informenv.com>, “Jenny Narvaez” <jnarvaez@nctcog.org>, “choward@nctcog.org” <choward@nctcog.org>, “Ezecckine@nctcog.org” <ezecckine@nctcog.org>, “Office of the President – UT Arlington” <president@uta.edu>
Sent: Tue, Mar 24, 2020 at 11:54 AM
Subject: Vulnerable working essential jobs contrary to curve flatteni
If the goal is to flatten the curve, don’t put the VERY people that will tax the hospitals In harm’s way!

Construction as an Essential Job during Pandemic is LUDICROUS unless constructing make-shift hospitals

March 23, 2020

https://youtu.be/wl6xmnDbHdQ

As a cancer survivor, running construction work during a pandemic is quite concerning for any foreman/superintendent who has no access to bottled water or hand sanitizer for his workers.

Per the Dallas directive the six foot distancing requirement is relaxed for so called temperature takers. That is also another point of concern since digital thermometers aren’t readily available either during a pandemic as is the PPE needed to be getting close to take the temperatures. I read where Walmart employees were making employees sign a statement daily that they certify to be temperature free…using the same ink pen!

YES we are in a pandemic…the small stuff…WE SHOULD SWEAT!

 

—– Forwarded Message —–
From: “kim feil” <kimfeil@sbcglobal.net>
To: “CISA.CAT@cisa.dhs.gov” <CISA.CAT@cisa.dhs.gov>
Sent: Mon, Mar 23, 2020 at 4:43 AM
Subject: Error on Shelter in place excludes per CISA construction
Dallas is to enact a shelter-in-place at midnight tonight which excludes residential and commercial construction workers per CISA guidelines.

Guidance on the Essential Critical Infrastructure Workforce | CISA
Forcing non-essential work is contrary to the task at hand in flattening the curve to reduce the pandemic risk.

Please be more concise and communicate to Dallas and Tarrant counties that which is considered critical Construction…for ex erecting makeshift hospitals.
https://www.dallascounty.org/departments/dchhs/

critcal infrastructure

My husband is having to report to work as they are building a new elementary school. The Hispanic Community dominates the masonry trade. Many return home to households with multiple families.

Six foot distancing is not possible with laborers supporting the bricklayers.
This is a recipe for disaster during a pandemic.

There is also confusion on temperature screening as to who is supposed to be conducting that with no PPE.

Please contact the public health officials in Texas to correct this error and save lives.

Residential and commercial work is non-essential during a pandemic disaster.

You need different guidelines for different types of disasters or have some explanation as to why RESIDENTIAL AND CONSTRUCTION work is considered essential…during a pandemic.

This letter will go to social media as well, in addition to any responses you may have to this correspondence.

Do the right thing, thank you.

Kim Feil