Archive for the ‘Arlington’ Category

Equip Arlington Convention Center for COVID Quarantine NOW!!

April 5, 2020
We have no control measure to keep those testing positive in quarantine!!!
—– Forwarded Message —–
From: kim feil <kimfeil@sbcglobal.net>
To: Cynthia Simmons <cynthia.simmons@arlingtontx.gov>; Ignacio Nunez <ignacio.nunez@arlingtontx.gov>
Cc: Jeff Williams <jeff.williams@arlingtontx.gov>; Trey Yelverton <trey.yelverton@arlingtontx.gov>; Jim Parajon <jim.parajon@arlingtontx.gov>; Don Crowson <don.crowson@arlingtontx.gov>; Jim Self <jim.self@arlingtontx.gov>; Helen Moise <helen.moise@arlingtontx.gov>; Victoria Myers <victoria.farrar-myers@arlingtontx.gov>; Marvin Sutton <marvin.sutton@arlingtontx.gov>; Robert Shepard <robert.shepard@arlingtontx.gov>; Sheri Capehart <sheri.capehart@arlingtontx.gov>; andrew.piel@arlingtontx.gov <andrew.piel@arlingtontx.gov>; barbara.odom-wesley@arlingtontx.gov <barbara.odom-wesley@arlingtontx.gov>; Office of the President – UT Arlington <president@uta.edu>
Sent: Sunday, April 5, 2020, 11:03:02 AM CDT
Subject: Facebook post of covid Arlington resident & concern
This lady lives near West Division St I’m told….says she thinks she caught it at the theater in mid March cuz she did not go anywhere else. 
dividion st sick lady
My worry is that she does not have anybody to care for her and will need to go out for groceries.
I do not trust we have the resources for trace back and since we have no measures to control those walking around infectious, we need to get our act together.
When will the Arlington Convention Center be ready to either care for hospital overflow or to mandate that the infectious spend their quarantine there?

(Covid)Mass Gatherings Should Not Happen Before Christmas 2021, Here’s the Math Why

March 30, 2020

covid john hopkins global april 18 2020

liveco april17 covid global by country topliveco april17 covid by us states top

April 18 2020 UPDATE using 10% infection rate and 2% conservative death rate.

Something smells off……no I haven’t lost my sense of smell and positive for the virus ..not yet! China has four times the population than the United States and yet our deaths are NINE times theirs!

I’m not trying to be a fear monger, so people that tend to comment without giving critical direction on where my math is incorrect or why my estimates are not conservative.. go away… I’m just crunching some numbers here using a conservative infection rate and a conservative (known cases) death rate estimate. So here goes….12% of people tested globally for the Coronavirus so far have tested positive (2,178,149/18,161,936=12%). Say the infection rate is only 10% conservatively… with China having a 1.4 billion population, they would eventually have one hundred and forty million people there testing positive.

If the death rate for those positive were dying at say a *conservative 2% rate, that would be an eventual 2.8 million deaths there once the virus “Burns Through” its 10% infectious rate (140,000,000 x .02 =2,800,000) in China.

They recently increased their deaths by 1,300 (50%) for a total of 3,869 deaths.
https://www.google.com/…/china-wuhan-coronavirus…/index.html

*Per the above aformentioned article, China’s current cases are at 50,333 with 3,869 deaths which equates to a 7.7% death rate of “known” cases (3,869/50,333=.0768), which is why I call my 2% death rate OF KNOWN CASES conservative in addition to what John Hopkins says the U.S. has per capita…..

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/apr/18/trump-touts-us-wins-against-coronavirus-lower-capi/?utm_source=onesignal&utm_campaign=pushnotify&utm_medium=push

“Of the 10 countries with the most COVID-19 deaths, the U.S. has the second-lowest per capita mortality rate at 5.3% per 100,000 people, according to an analysis by Johns Hopkins University”.

Since China is three months ahead of the United States in this, I wanted to see how “finished” they are with this virus since they have seen a decline and have since relaxed and open up their businesses.
Dividing their current deaths by expected deaths, (3,869/2,800,000=.00138) they are ONLY .14% done with the virus. I then applied the same math to the United States’ population (329,410,596), infection rate (10%), and same death rate (2%) and I see that based on the current U.S. deaths of 34,522, that we are 5.2% done with this virus (u.s. population 329,410,596 x .10 infection rate=32,941,060 expected positive cases in the United States x .02 death rate = 658,821 expected U.S. “eventual” deaths).

Why is it that we are 37 fold ahead of China in being done with expected deaths? (.14 x 37=5.18) Something really smells. They either greatly understated their deaths, or we are greatly ineffective with our mitigation efforts thus far.

Since we have accumulated 34,522 deaths in 30 days roughly here in the U.S., to get us to a 5% “done-with-burn-through-eventual-death-rate”, applying that to the element of time would take us at LEAST a year and a half to get to 100% done. (1/.05=20 and 600days/30days=20 so that 600 days/365 days in a year=1.6 yrs to be done with eventual deaths).

Arlington TX analysis using 10% infection rate with 2%  death rate of those eventually infected:

Arlington population rounded up 400,000 x .10= 40,000 projected infections

40,000 infected x .02 death rate= 800 projected eventual Arlington TX deaths

With three verified deaths in Arlington as of 4/17/20, we are .4% done with eventual projected deaths (3/800=.00375)

https://www.theshorthorn.com/coronavirus/covid–tracker-here-are-the-latest-updates/article_a18591e4-6edf-11ea-98b9-439f60589082.html?fbclid=IwAR3J332QiWp2TmRD4mReoThp54y5v3srP4mCI6kTj-2cR7xlDl7D-22g0ZY

If you recall the CDC recently revised down the number of expected U.S. deaths from the one to two hundreds of thousands “if we do everything perfectly” it was coined.

So even with my conservative/yet seemingly high numbers, could my 658,821 expected eventual U.S. deaths represent deaths we’d see without social distancing and PPE mitigation?

I’m trying to see the bigger picture in the long haul. If anything this analysis serves to make a case for all of us to comply with following social distancing for the next two years, wearing your masks, and hand washing.

If my conservative, yet higher than CDC eventual death numbers represent UNNECESSARY deaths without mitigation, then….. mass gatherings shouldn’t happen until just before Christmas of 2021. We can do this ya’ll!

 

——end update———

At the end of March in 2020, I based this post on a 25-50% (eventual)  infection rate: with a headline “1,000-6,800 expected Arlington TX COVID deaths with at least 20,000 residents needing hospitalization”

Pandemic, Covid-19, deaths are estimated to represent .25% – 1.7% of the population of Arlington residents based on some key mathematical inputs; one of them being that Arlington is estimated to have 400,000 residents.

The 25%-50% infection rate, and the 1%-3.4% death rate as well as the hospitalization rate of 20% for those infected are from the March 29, 2020 article…….

fluvrscovidfinal

https://www.nola.com/news/coronavirus/article_e33c0cf0-7090-11ea-b3da-53f5ab31dd4b.html?utm_medium=notification&utm_source=pushly&utm_campaign=desktop_push,

With the infection rate ranging from 25%-50%, that puts 100,000-200,000 Arlington citizens infected. This only represents those tested and “KNOWN” covid cases.

Of those infected, 20% will need hospitalization for an average of 11 days each. That means our hospitals that are not serving overflow from other cities, would need to prepare to……

admit TWENTY to FORTY THOUSAND Arlington residents.

T H I S   I S   W  H  Y   W E  S H O U L D  W E A R   S O M E   T Y P E  O F  M A S K 

T O   P R O T E C T   T H O S E   I D E N T I F I E D   A S  T H E 

V U N E R A B L E   P O P U L A T I O N  from the rest of us!

Those vulnerable besides the elderly are those with diabetes 41%, obesity 28%, heart/lung conditions, immuno-compromised and chronic kidney disease 31%, among others (of which 5% is those with no underlying health conditions). https://www.fox8live.com/2020/03/28/ldh-diabetes-leading-underlying-condition-covid-related-deaths/

THIS is why we are sheltering in place to “flatten the curve”. That way we don’t all come in at the same time needing IV fluids, or more critical services related to acute respiratory failure.

Of those going critical, the deaths can range from 1%-3.4% (however in my own tracking, with each passing day, the death rate goes higher. This could be already showing that the hospitals cannot keep up like in Italy. Italy’s death rate was 8.4% on 3/19/20 and as of 3/30 it is at 11.4%!!)

Apply your 1%-3.4% death rate to the infection rate of 100,000-200,00 citizens, and that is how I arrived at an estimated death toll ranging from 1,000-6,800 Arlington Citizens.

arlington death rate covid

Each one of us preventing a person from being infected, helps to relieve the burden off of our hospital workers on the front lines risking it all…their own health….and their own families health!

Any questions?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

KimFeilGood Guitar Performance Classes

June 20, 2019

I teach incorporating strumming rhythms to simulate drum percussion, & to simulate bass during guitar playing so as to not fall into the trap of boring strumming. I teach stage attitude presence/confidence and dance movement to and from mic. I also teach transposing music to find where to be singing in your natural voice as well as how to arrange your set list and tunings to vary your sound between songs to not create burn out for the listeners. Teaching songwriting can also be covered in a 2 hr/week session for $70 for the first session, then $60 for the next, then $50, then $40, then $30 for the last four of our eight week session with no commitment or advance payments required. If a school student cannot devote 2 hrs, we can do 1 hour sessions by halving the above fees and going for a longer term 16 week goal in learning what I have to offer over my 50 years as a female in a male dominated music world. My edge in syncopating the rhythms began in being a tamborine percussionist first. After learning guitar chords, I was bored with the traditionally taught basic 1ah, 2ah, 3ah, 4 strumming patterns. I teach how to NOT be a boring guitarist, basically. I coordinate the open mic at Truth Vinyl records and hope to have my students be utilizing the stage to refine their skills. Happy learning and have fun performing! Call or text me 817 564-2577.

How to NOT be a boring guitarist….nuff said!

Lillian Bailey Magna Cude Laude Featured Soloist at UT Arlington Fall 2017 Graduations

December 16, 2017

Work in Progress….

Lillian Bailey was honored to be the featured soloist for UT Arlington on her graduation and for all the other Fall 2017 ceremonies.

 

Here was her post-post graduating FB picture post as a true alumni with Graham Feil…

Lillian Bailey with Graham Feil

Lillian Bailey with Graham Feil …use this link to listen to the recording her sister, Kari Ann Partovi, took https://www.facebook.com/kariann.partovi/posts/10102800344798624

Here is her “slow mo” introduction…

…..XXXX….

lilly jumbo tron 1

Here is Lillian’s sister, Kari Ann Partovi‘s post. This is the source of the still frame her video

Here is her gowned singing performance of the National Anthem at 20:03 minutes into the ceremony…..

Here is the frame starting where Lilly is accepting her certificate of graduation…

Here is Lilly walking the stage still frame from the above video…

lilly walking grad stage

Here is her second singing performance of the school alma mater…

 

Here is my footage recording and pics…(battery charging)

Here are the other performances…(get from website)

Here are the after pics…(battery charging)

LoVE Ya Lilly Girl…You complete my son, Graham.

Pam Medrez & Kim Feil tear into Silent Night – enjoy!

December 7, 2017

IMG_0914.JPG

Truth Vinyl invite for 12/13 and 12/20 2017 appearances here….

https://www.facebook.com/events/1839843529639353/

 

Guess Who’s Leading Miss Persis Studio Adult Exercise Free Style Dance Classes?

November 19, 2017

Rolled my ankle and still waiting for final plans to move forward. Call Persis studio for more info. Thanks Kim

===First draft subject to Miss Persis Studio approval=====

Starting 1/5/2018, BLOW OFF STRESS & RECHARGE FOR THE WEEKEND WITH….

Miss Persis Studio Adult Exercise Free Style Dance Classes
Fridays noon to 1 pm at 222 W. Main St. Arlington TX
Class sponsor, Kim Feil 817 564-2577
kim persis pic
Enrollment Form 817 261-7921
NAME _________________________________________­
ADDRESS _______________________________________
CITY __________________________ZIP_______________
EMAIL_________________________________________
PHONE/CELL ____________________________________
EMERGENCY NUMBER____________________________
I acknowledge ($5 per class) monthly 4 punch card can be used at my convenience with no expiration date so long as classes are being offered. I understand & release Miss Persis Studio & any MPS employees/volunteers of all liability in the event of any accident or injury.

SIGNATURE___________________________

SIGN DATE____________

Free style dancing is at your pace and of your own design. You can follow along or do your own moves….no one messes up, no one has to impress, just dance, dance, dance!!!